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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model