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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model