Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 0

(9:22) 3-B.Nortman punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.40 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model