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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LAC 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 15 for -3 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model