4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model