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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon up the middle to 50 for -2 yards (51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model