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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to DEN 25, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-24-Tr.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model