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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 49 for 2 yards (58-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model