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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 6 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 68 yards to MIN 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-31-C.Banjo.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model