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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 6 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for -2 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model