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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 6 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model