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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 9 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP