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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 26 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP