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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 25 for 13 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model