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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to TEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.54 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model