Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LV 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 18 for 5 yards (14-E.Weems; 41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on LV-56-X.Woodson-Luster, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.08 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model