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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:36) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to TEN 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 32 for 7 yards (84-C.Patterson). PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP