Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(8:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LV 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model