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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model