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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model