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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model