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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model