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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP