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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 8-J.Vogel punts 45 yards to SEA 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model