Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 92

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 8-J.Vogel punts 57 yards to SEA 35, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 42 for 7 yards (25-M.Evans). PENALTY on SEA-38-T.Madden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.64 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 92, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model