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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to SEA 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model