Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(12:10) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to SEA 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.86 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model