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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP