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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to GB 25, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-84-A.Darboh.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP