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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model