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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to GB 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP