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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to SEA 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model