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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.32 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP