Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(13:34) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to IND 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 47 for 16 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model