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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model