Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(2:04) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to ARI 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model