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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to IND 34, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 40 for 6 yards (27-T.Branch).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.56 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model