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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:48) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model