Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(14:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 46 for 33 yards (51-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model