4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 71

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP