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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris. PENALTY on HOU-22-J.Todman, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at HOU 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.62 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model