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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 32-J.Hill right guard to HOU 16 for 3 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.03 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model