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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 51

Houston Texans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.05 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model