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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to HOU 3, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model