Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Houston Texans 13

(1:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.78 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -1.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model