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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 90

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to CIN 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 45 for 8 yards (46-J.Weeks; 23-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP