Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 77

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(5:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to HOU 39 for 26 yards (9-S.Lechler).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.53 EP
77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model