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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model