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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to MIN 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for 12 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model