Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 78

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(5:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to MIN 42, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.62 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model